Every forecast scored against the real award. No forecaster should be trusted without one.
81% of awards closed inside our forecast band, across 27,328 solicitations scored.
Holdout through FY2025: each solicitation scored against its real award. Median error is how far our midpoint estimate typically lands from the real award — the 80% band is the calibrated metric. Median error: 47%. A category-median forecast would miss by about 61% on the same holdout.
| Award size | Solicitations | Inside band | Median error |
|---|---|---|---|
| $10k-$100k | 14,941 | 82% | 41% |
| $100k-$1M | 11,062 | 81% | 51% |
| $1M-$10M | 1,070 | 77% | 60% |
Scored on a temporal holdout: the model is trained only on solicitations that closed before the test window, then measured against awards it never saw. Independent, built on public federal data.